The results from the Chicago Mathon are online and everyone tried to get the Olympic trials standard. Five people ran 2:18 and I am assuming their first qualifying race for the trials. On the other hand 30 men went out in 1:08-1:09 and ran 2:19 or slower. That's 30 people who trained well enough to run halfway on pace but had problems in the second half. Statistically only one in seven of the people who hit halfway on pace made the goal. I am sure that CIM will be nearly the same.
It's eye opening. I mean I'm only a 1:12 half marathoner this week. Those guys ran three minutes faster than my PR and tried to do it again. What am I doing!? Okay I know that this is a long term process and I fully expect to PR huge even if I do not run 2:18. Plus, I just ran 140 miles last week with 24 of them under six minute pace. I doubt many 2:20+ marathoners put down 140 mile weeks.
I'm just saying, the odds are stacked against my time goal this cycle, but you never know until you try. Seeing that at Chicago the odds were one in seven for those that made it halfway is motivational. I didn't think the odds were that good.