My Second Marathon: California International Marathon 2011

I am registered for the 2011 California International Marathon December 4th, 2011. Why this particular one? I was having trouble getting motivated to start building up my training again to go out and progress a few minutes in the marathon, so I thought, is it possible that I can achieve the 2:19 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials standard? Because the entire year 2012 will probably not have any qualifying marathons for the 2016 trials so that year I am more or less forced to focus on other distances. Thus it is take a shot at the trials this fall or wait at least a year and a half to qualify for the next trials. Can I qualify for the 2012 trials? My answer was and is, yes, it is possible but I will need as much time as possible. A lot of things will have to go really well between now and then and on race day, but it is possible. I give myself a 4% chance of success. I have run a 10k that fast, I have run so many long runs and a few ultras that I do not expect to hit the glycogen wall, because I didn’t at Green Bay, and it’s a net downhill course. Plus, I’m in as good of a training situation as I have ever been in.
I expect there will be a group of men going after the standard and I plan to sit in behind them for as long as possible. Hopefully that is 26.2 miles. This could fail by slowing to 5:25 pace at 25 miles and running 2:19:01 (Which I would totally appeal because most courses are a little long to ensure measuring error and my chip time might be under the limit.) If success is defined by running faster than 2:19 there are many different ways that I could fail. I know that my chances are slim. Regardless of how crazy you think I am, I am giving myself the opportunity to succeed. On December 5th I will know more about myself than I do now. I don't give myself the chance, I will never know what is possible.