Thursday, August 11, 2011

The Banks! The Governments! ...The Farmers?

In 2008 banking got a makeover, at least we are told that. In 2011 governments are getting a makeover. It started in Egypt and Madison, Wisconsin before turning to budget issues in Greece, Italy, and the United States. We have not seen the end of this. In fact, when it comes to government budget recovery, we are at the very beginning of this cycle. It will possibly involve a decade or more of limited growth.

The question just popped in my head while I was eating dinner, 'who will fail next?' while I have no idea I am afraid that food will become the next crisis. There is already an official famine in Ethopia and Somolia. As China, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia continue to expand they will want more food and more energy intensive foods, like meat. Add that to an El NiƱo cycle and add some insect in the mix and before you know it food costs twice as much (wholesale) and all of the sudden 3/4 of the world is unsure of their next meal.

Obviously, I hope that there are no major failures for the next 70 years of my life, but given two big ones in three years, something else will probably come up.

Not to sounds paranoid, although I do consider myself paranoid about unemployment, I spend time running and reading thinking about the future and crazy scenarios such as massive famines. That amount of preperation helps me run races and climb mountains because I have already thought through most of the scenarios and all I have to do it react according to one of my scenarios instead of panic.

So I'm not hoarding canned food and weapons and gold, but I do have a garden... I guess I was brainwashed as a young kid. They said 'Be Prepared' and I listened. For the most part it is all mental. The key is not to panic I suppose. Those that sit down on the mountain sometimes never get up. Those that get dropped in a race during a surge either work their way back up, or go backwards. What you do on the rebound after the fall really does matter. Will you try again with your new knowledge or end the pursuit? Some pursuits are too valuable to me to stop regardless of the number of failures.

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