"The goal of training is to do the amount necessary to accomplish the goal. Well with no workouts left between now and my debut marathon I am left to hope that I have done enough. I am reading Lance Armstong's book, It's not about the Bike. On the eve of brain surgery he deals with his concept of life and death and morals, and personally he leaves something to be desired. In particular, he wrote that he believed that living a true life was morally enough. What does his life have to do with my marathon? If everyone knew the result before the race there would be no point in the race.
Thus we continue in the competition. These races are not against others they are internal. So much of the battle is mental. Once the gun goes off it becomes physical, but the mental aspect could lose it for me long before Sunday morning.
I don't know exactly what will happen in my first marathon. That is part of the allure. I am sure around mile 23 things will be pretty interesting. Was it enough? We'll know around 10 AM this Sunday." - May 2011
Now more than a year and a half after writing that I still ask the question, 'have I done enough?' But the question isn't only about running, it never really was. I am constantly breaking through barriers and doing things I have not done in the past. For example, writing a master's thesis, moving to Iowa where I knew no one, I've tried to climb most of the famous stuff in this country, I've run two marathons and not terribly slow either, and I have saved my company hundreds of thousands of dollars. Yet, the challenges ahead are larger than the challenges behind. Plus, these hurdles can not be put in a box like a semester begins and ends so quickly. I want to go home and watch tv and eat potato chips instead of reading and writing and running the extra four miles, but I can't. I am tormented by who I want to be and what I want to do. Sure there is joy, amazingly rewarding happiness, and other accolades after milestones and accomplishments, but getting there... it hurts. If it was easy everyone would do it. I tell myself that, then I look at how slowly I seem to be progressing and wonder if everyone is doing it, or if others are working ever harder than myself to reach their goals.
Have I done enough? No.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
People Could Strike More
In this post-industrial age the concept or practice of a group of people going on strike is losing steam. Strikes don’t happen nearly as often as they did over the last 100 years. In part that is because many of the things people struck for have happened. Working conditions are safer, wages [in the United States] have gone up so that everyone in manufacturing can afford things like a house and car. Yet the fundamental reason people struck is still around, inequality. Inequality can take many forms. It could be lower wages, high health risks, discrimination, it could be harsh penalties for minor offenses.
Striking sends the message that the group is bigger than simply the handful of people who are being subjugated by unfair terms. Striking sends the message, ‘you don’t control us.’ Which is something that needs to be said sometimes. We don’t have control. You don’t have control. I use the word influence in place of the word control because that is really what we have. For example, no one controls what gets published on this blog. I have a ton of influence over it but the circumstances in my life that lead to the articles on this blog I do not control so ultimately I do not control what appears up here. For example, will I write and publish extensively about raising kids in ten years? I don’t know.
For example, I am following a story where I feel a group of people should strike. I feel that particular group is not getting what they deserve. The problem, is organization. I am sure people have thought about quitting and leaving but the group does not seem to have a leader or union representative to direct the attitudes of the group into a clear message. So what do they do?
Diverging on a tangent, I have been trying to get in touch with my emotions more lately. The reason being that physical and mental labor is plentiful. There are all sort of people that will work on some mental or physical task at a specified rate of compensation for some time. However, we don’t really measure caring and emotion that is put into something. At least in my small world I am trying to change that. I am trying to care more. Fortunately, I have already been burned by flaky uncommitted people that I have learned to not “care” about the performance or results as much as the people. Now don't misunderstand, I am incredibly results orientated. I’m not trying to run a marathon “well”, I’m trying to run a 2:17:59 or better. I’m not trying to go mountaineering, I’m trying to summit Mt. Everest. Getting back to putting more emotion into my work, it’s not about knowing and predicting exactly what will happen in one of my finite element simulations compared to real life, it’s about making all of the weak points just strong enough so that the assembly will not crack for a decade or more yet light enough that it will not waste huge amounts of fuel dragging the thing around. Ultimately, there is some art involved in the analysis and an engineering judgement call, which is really just a best practice for best guesses. Basically it involves me staring at some red, orange, yellow, and green spread out over a few elements and trying to decide if it is acceptable or not. It’s emotional, I want to pass the durability test, with the lightest, cheapest solution possible.
How does caring matter? Caring is the one degree of difference between hot and boiling. It is the one or two extra “odd” solutions I try instead of simply bumping up the plate thickness of an entire plate. It is the load case I invent to see what would happen. It is when I ask an athlete how he or she is feeling and after getting the response, “good”, I ask if they could give me an answer in complete sentences and be more descriptive. Because one can usually tell from the look on a person’s face if that person is in a negative place emotionally.
It is not that I am a huge proponent of unions. I feel unions have morphed into large organizations that on occasion keep people from being fired who maybe should be fired, such as a teacher who hits a student. Also, unions on occasion prohibit work from being done as efficiently as it might be done due to protecting the jobs of it's members. However, unions have time and again pushed for safer working conditions and a better share of the company earnings. The attitude of the masses is especially interesting to watch in developing countries that deal with issues like the rape in Delhi and the smog in Beijing.
In short, emotion goes into life whether you know it or not. That emotion deserves respect and just maybe you should strike so that those in authority above you who might try to minimize your emotional contribution recognize it. Some inequality of time, money, reputation or something else can serve well to motivate people, but how much is enough?
It is not that I am a huge proponent of unions. I feel unions have morphed into large organizations that on occasion keep people from being fired who maybe should be fired, such as a teacher who hits a student. Also, unions on occasion prohibit work from being done as efficiently as it might be done due to protecting the jobs of it's members. However, unions have time and again pushed for safer working conditions and a better share of the company earnings. The attitude of the masses is especially interesting to watch in developing countries that deal with issues like the rape in Delhi and the smog in Beijing.
Monday, January 28, 2013
I Live in Iowa: Week 92
Another week living the dream! (Which is sometimes a nightmare.) Life will never be prefect, I have known that for years, yet I still struggle with it. I want life to be perfect. I have this image in my head of perfection, but that is not the world we live in.
Work was good this week. I came up with a couple solutions that considering the constraints are pretty good solutions. Big ego moment, I'm impressed with myself. Usually the stuff I suggest isn't manufacturable or gets in the way of hose routings or requires five other plates to change just because of the one change I suggested. I am learning, and I like it!
Plus it was a four day work week, which makes the week go quickly. Although, I felt like I didn't get as much done as during a normal week.
Speaking of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, I spent Sunday afternoon and Monday morning in Cedar Rapids ice climbing and rock climbing (including sending some 5.9 and 5.10) and eating Mexican food with a couple of my friends. I worked with a man in 2006 at summer camp and now it turns out we live somewhat close and share some hobbies, like climbing. It is a small world. I am blessed to have the friends that I do. Cedar Rapids is the kind of flat place I was afraid all of Iowa was when I moved here, yet they have more climbing opportunities, both in ice and indoor rock, than Dubuque. Again, life is never perfect.
Running has been a mixed bag, I ran 82 miles, with one light set of mile repeats in the 5:45 range. My left hamstring has been bothering me so I didn't push it and do anything even moderately fast. I have a massage scheduled for this week and I have been doing some strengthening and stretching exercises. I am sure it is getting better, but doing a 4.5 mile tempo last Saturday in shorts in 42 degree weather, plus 0 degree morning runs Tuesday and Thursday with only one layer of pants was not as good for a tight, probably knotted hamstring. I've been having some right ankle discomfort (dare I say pain) too, but again, I ran 82 miles, so I'm not falling apart exactly. In fact, as my mileage increases my recovery time decreases as my body overcompensates for the stress.
Coaching was good. I could tell tales of advice given, workouts managed, cheering cheered, improvements made, anemia discovered, and communication improved, but I want to focus for this week on two instances that in total took less than a minute of time. Two sophomores, five hours apart, told me, "thank you for being here."I thank the athletes all the time for being here and working hard and putting in effort, and to have two return the favor Saturday at our track meet was really fantastic!
What else? Still some social drama, thus the higher blood pressure, but maybe that's a consequence of caring? In other words, making the decision to care might mean putting one's blood pressure on the line. Even I didn't know I cared that much.
Work was good this week. I came up with a couple solutions that considering the constraints are pretty good solutions. Big ego moment, I'm impressed with myself. Usually the stuff I suggest isn't manufacturable or gets in the way of hose routings or requires five other plates to change just because of the one change I suggested. I am learning, and I like it!
Plus it was a four day work week, which makes the week go quickly. Although, I felt like I didn't get as much done as during a normal week.
Speaking of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, I spent Sunday afternoon and Monday morning in Cedar Rapids ice climbing and rock climbing (including sending some 5.9 and 5.10) and eating Mexican food with a couple of my friends. I worked with a man in 2006 at summer camp and now it turns out we live somewhat close and share some hobbies, like climbing. It is a small world. I am blessed to have the friends that I do. Cedar Rapids is the kind of flat place I was afraid all of Iowa was when I moved here, yet they have more climbing opportunities, both in ice and indoor rock, than Dubuque. Again, life is never perfect.
Running has been a mixed bag, I ran 82 miles, with one light set of mile repeats in the 5:45 range. My left hamstring has been bothering me so I didn't push it and do anything even moderately fast. I have a massage scheduled for this week and I have been doing some strengthening and stretching exercises. I am sure it is getting better, but doing a 4.5 mile tempo last Saturday in shorts in 42 degree weather, plus 0 degree morning runs Tuesday and Thursday with only one layer of pants was not as good for a tight, probably knotted hamstring. I've been having some right ankle discomfort (dare I say pain) too, but again, I ran 82 miles, so I'm not falling apart exactly. In fact, as my mileage increases my recovery time decreases as my body overcompensates for the stress.
Coaching was good. I could tell tales of advice given, workouts managed, cheering cheered, improvements made, anemia discovered, and communication improved, but I want to focus for this week on two instances that in total took less than a minute of time. Two sophomores, five hours apart, told me, "thank you for being here."I thank the athletes all the time for being here and working hard and putting in effort, and to have two return the favor Saturday at our track meet was really fantastic!
What else? Still some social drama, thus the higher blood pressure, but maybe that's a consequence of caring? In other words, making the decision to care might mean putting one's blood pressure on the line. Even I didn't know I cared that much.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
My Stock Market Gains and Losses 2012
By popular demand (seriously people, vote more!) here are my stock market results for the year 2012. A two to one vote means you get to see how poorly I did this past year.
First, A123, what a disaster. This is why long term options may be a good idea. I lost huge on this trade. I lost $1235.08, that's one thousand two hundred and thirty-five dollars and eight cents. I bought in only weeks before they announced bankruptcy. I looked at quarterly reports and things like cash on hand, book value of assets, debts, and the typical value things I think about. I totally neglected the cash flow or profitability of the company. Plus, I have a friend that used to work there. Knowing him I thought it would be a good bet because he does quality engineering, but in my ignorance I forgot to check if he still worked there and turns out he stopped working there a few months before I invested. In other words, I invested because I was looking at old account numbers at a fixed point in time and based on a person that did not in fact work there. The dynamic (cash flow trends) and current picture was not good. Second, I panicked. The day they announced bankruptcy I read their report (this is a more recent update that says about the same thing) and it said that shareholders would probably end up with nothing. The stock plummeted to $0.06 and I sold. A few days later it was more than double that as bankruptcy investors jumped in to see if they could gain any value. Had I just been a little patient I could have saved hundreds of dollars. Developing patience, in the middle of October I spent $1235.08 on that lesson. It's worth at least a few college credits right?
Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals Inc. (JGBO) I mentioned early in the year, I didn’t understand the business and the books looked to be cooked so I lost nearly everything. The CFO left abruptly, and again, I didn't really understand what they did in the first place.
Ralcorp and Post were a classic spinoff that I ended up not having to wait terribly long on. Spinoffs are situations where a company gets so big that divisions don’t really communicate or use many shared resources and management is estranged from the daily operations. This is the difference between Apple and Exxon Mobil, General Electric General Motors, Caterpillar and others. At Apple the head guys sit in on design meetings for new products, at Exxon the head guys probably don’t spend a huge amount of time looking at valve, pipe and system designs. Most large companies are probably similar to Exxon, GM and Cat. So one nearly guaranteed way to “create” value, or more appropriately realize value, is to break the company into smaller pieces so that management has more contact with the products and there is more incentive on how to increase profitability. Plus there are fewer standardizations that limit innovation. In other words, compensation becomes more aligned to shareholders and innovation becomes more likely. Plus, investors can own the business they want to own and sell the business they do not want to own. Basically Ralcorp and Post were a classic spinoff except that Keith Meister decided to get involved and with the pending sale of Ralcorp I made hundreds of dollars sooner than I expected.
Bank of America was a classic value investment. The price to book ratio, price to earnings, and government bailout, which means you would never lose all of your money, made it very attractive. However, it stagnated around $9.80s and with the fiscal cliff I was impatient and sold early, had I waited a few weeks for it to go up another $2, I would have made hundreds more. Lesson: be patient. However, no one goes broke booking gains, so I shouldn’t whine over 40%+ gains in one year.
US Oil is one of my favorite things to invest in. I didn’t do terribly well, but I have not lost money on US oil yet and I always play it for a few months at a time. Oil is one of the most basic things to bet on. For USO You could make money just buying at $32 and selling at $36, repeat every eight to twelve months. In fact, that’s about what I do. Long term commodity prices decline, but long term some commodities are fixed quantities. Short term as long as we have wars in the middle east the price will be volatile and a great thing to invest in. Oil future usually hit a low near the end of the year and a high beginning in summer, with gas prices following a month or so behind with highest gas prices the end of summer and lowest prices early in winter. Perfect example was gas hit $2.99 a couple weeks ago here in Dubuque but it has begun it's summer climb towards I would guess $3.70-80 this year.
Gravity GRVY was a classic value investment. Low P/E and P/B. Had I waited a little longer I could have doubled my money but after a bad quarter the stock has since plummeted so I will take my gains. Plus I bought in again recently. The interesting thing is that most of the stock I hear is owned by one guy, which means it’s a candidate for going private, which is good because the fewer the large shareholders are the fewer people to please and typically the longer term horizon the small group has.
GTAT was another value investment. However, it was in the solar industry and I had to buy more when the price dropped to make money on the rebound. Lesson learned? It was part of the solar bubble which burst, which sector in general might now be oversold, but that depends on things like carbon tax or government subsidies to renewable energy technologies. In other words, the actual target price of renewable energy sector companies depends on political realities currently. However, I expect the scientific reality of pollution to make renewable energy a more commercially viable business in the future.
ITT, Exelis and Xylem was a classic spinoff. A defense contractor with a water business. That does not make sense, but it was a great spinoff opportunity. I sold ITT back in 2011. Really this was my first spinoff and a success of a few hundred dollars. Spinoffs are classic value realization opportunities.
All one has to do to make money is read a lot. Now I know I lost ground compared to the stock market, and for those that know I am invested in DHT and AAPL which have both dropped significantly in price this year. But that’s how investing goes. Plus, drops in value create buying opportunity. Did anyone buy BOA at $5 per share? You could have more than doubled your money.
In total I made .7% based on buying and selling alone, but I did make $484 in dividends, mostly from the above mentioned companies but there are a couple others I prefer not to mention thus I will not share the details of my dividends received for the year. Including dividends rounding to the nearest percent I made 5%. So for the year I did better than a savings account by a few percent. Also, had I been a few days or weeks more patient in a couple cases, or done more research I could have made hundreds more, or lost hundreds less if you prefer. And that’s all part of the learning process, failing. Losing $1235.08 is memorable. It hurts. Fortunately, I did learn quite a bit from the year 2012 about investing. Not the 8.4% that I made last year. I still lost to every big index, but I recognize a few mistakes that I made, and I hope to not make them again.
Finally a note on short term gains and losses. I expect more in the future to own companies for longer amounts of time and have mostly long term gains (and inevitably losses), but being new to investing I felt the need to get some sales under my belt and book some gains.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL, DHT, GRVY, and USO. Some of those are also value priced right now so I might buy more of any of them in the near future.
 |
| Stock Market Gains and Losses 2012 |
First, A123, what a disaster. This is why long term options may be a good idea. I lost huge on this trade. I lost $1235.08, that's one thousand two hundred and thirty-five dollars and eight cents. I bought in only weeks before they announced bankruptcy. I looked at quarterly reports and things like cash on hand, book value of assets, debts, and the typical value things I think about. I totally neglected the cash flow or profitability of the company. Plus, I have a friend that used to work there. Knowing him I thought it would be a good bet because he does quality engineering, but in my ignorance I forgot to check if he still worked there and turns out he stopped working there a few months before I invested. In other words, I invested because I was looking at old account numbers at a fixed point in time and based on a person that did not in fact work there. The dynamic (cash flow trends) and current picture was not good. Second, I panicked. The day they announced bankruptcy I read their report (this is a more recent update that says about the same thing) and it said that shareholders would probably end up with nothing. The stock plummeted to $0.06 and I sold. A few days later it was more than double that as bankruptcy investors jumped in to see if they could gain any value. Had I just been a little patient I could have saved hundreds of dollars. Developing patience, in the middle of October I spent $1235.08 on that lesson. It's worth at least a few college credits right?
GTAT was another value investment. However, it was in the solar industry and I had to buy more when the price dropped to make money on the rebound. Lesson learned? It was part of the solar bubble which burst, which sector in general might now be oversold, but that depends on things like carbon tax or government subsidies to renewable energy technologies. In other words, the actual target price of renewable energy sector companies depends on political realities currently. However, I expect the scientific reality of pollution to make renewable energy a more commercially viable business in the future.
Finally a note on short term gains and losses. I expect more in the future to own companies for longer amounts of time and have mostly long term gains (and inevitably losses), but being new to investing I felt the need to get some sales under my belt and book some gains.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL, DHT, GRVY, and USO. Some of those are also value priced right now so I might buy more of any of them in the near future.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Health Update
Wednesday at work they had complimentary health screening for most of the people here onsite. So I signed up at the last minute Tuesday. Given that fasting was required that means that I took a late slot and did not eat anything except some black coffee until 11 AM! How healthy am I by the numbers?
Cholesterol:
Total: 201 mg/dl (Goal: less than 200, marginal: less than 240)
HDL: 100 mg/dl (Goal: greater than 60)
TC/HDL Ratio: N/A (Goal: less than 3)
LDL: N/A (Goal: less than 150)
Triglycerides: 63 mg/dl (Goal: less than 130)
In short, the total was a little high, but that is because my good cholesterol is so good. In fact, my good cholesterol is so high the machine could not even calculate two of my health numbers!
Blood Glucose:
Glucose: 77 mg/dl (Goal: 70 to 99 mg/dl)
This is good news because my family has a history of diabetes. So far, 26.75 years without diabetes!
Blood Pressure:
Blood Pressure: 126/86 mmHg (Goal: less than 120/less than 80)
Pulse: 55 beats/minute (Normal is 60-100 BPM)
My blood pressure was high. Perhaps the highest it has ever been, no there was that one time at the doctor's last year. Why was it high? I have been a little stressed out with drama lately. Plus, I had not eaten anything in 14 hours. It would be good for me to find new ways to relieve stress. My record low blood pressure is 90/60 the summer after I graduated high school. It would be nice to hit that again. My pulse was pretty good considering that I had been awake for more than five hours. I am regularly below 50 when I wake up in the morning.
Body Composition:
Body Mass Index: 21 (Goal: 18.5 to 24.9)
Body Fat: 14% (Goal: 8.0 to 19.9%)
Waist Circumference: 30 inches (Goal: <40 inches="" p="">Height: 65 inches (without shoes)
Weight: 131 pounds (with clothing and wallet but without shoes)
Umm, I'm fit. The nurse said she had never seen 14% body fat. On the other hand, I'm looking at that and thinking I can lose 5 pounds. Eight to ten percent body fat sounds more like a goal to me than simply being fit in the middle of the range. Pretty excited about the height, this is only the second time to be measured at 5' 5" without shoes but I'm not surprised. Both my dad and an uncle had small growth spurts in their mid 20s and my feet have grown a bit the last two years.
Overall, I'm the guy you want to insure. My health plan is basically to live to be at least 90, go set an age group world record for the 90+ division, then die. Invest in yourself. You are a ten million dollar machine or more, don't ruin the machine through lack of maintenance.
Cholesterol:
Total: 201 mg/dl (Goal: less than 200, marginal: less than 240)
HDL: 100 mg/dl (Goal: greater than 60)
TC/HDL Ratio: N/A (Goal: less than 3)
LDL: N/A (Goal: less than 150)
Triglycerides: 63 mg/dl (Goal: less than 130)
In short, the total was a little high, but that is because my good cholesterol is so good. In fact, my good cholesterol is so high the machine could not even calculate two of my health numbers!
Blood Glucose:
Glucose: 77 mg/dl (Goal: 70 to 99 mg/dl)
This is good news because my family has a history of diabetes. So far, 26.75 years without diabetes!
Blood Pressure:
Blood Pressure: 126/86 mmHg (Goal: less than 120/less than 80)
Pulse: 55 beats/minute (Normal is 60-100 BPM)
My blood pressure was high. Perhaps the highest it has ever been, no there was that one time at the doctor's last year. Why was it high? I have been a little stressed out with drama lately. Plus, I had not eaten anything in 14 hours. It would be good for me to find new ways to relieve stress. My record low blood pressure is 90/60 the summer after I graduated high school. It would be nice to hit that again. My pulse was pretty good considering that I had been awake for more than five hours. I am regularly below 50 when I wake up in the morning.
Body Composition:
Body Mass Index: 21 (Goal: 18.5 to 24.9)
Body Fat: 14% (Goal: 8.0 to 19.9%)
Waist Circumference: 30 inches (Goal: <40 inches="" p="">Height: 65 inches (without shoes)
Weight: 131 pounds (with clothing and wallet but without shoes)
Umm, I'm fit. The nurse said she had never seen 14% body fat. On the other hand, I'm looking at that and thinking I can lose 5 pounds. Eight to ten percent body fat sounds more like a goal to me than simply being fit in the middle of the range. Pretty excited about the height, this is only the second time to be measured at 5' 5" without shoes but I'm not surprised. Both my dad and an uncle had small growth spurts in their mid 20s and my feet have grown a bit the last two years.
Overall, I'm the guy you want to insure. My health plan is basically to live to be at least 90, go set an age group world record for the 90+ division, then die. Invest in yourself. You are a ten million dollar machine or more, don't ruin the machine through lack of maintenance.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Apple, the Company
Apple stock will open something like 8% lower this morning because their quarterly financial numbers were only the records they expected. They bring in over $4 billion in sales per week with a gross margin over 38%, they have more than a quarter of their market value in cash (and liquid securities), and their price to earnings ratio is creeping to under 10! By most valuation measures, even those for steel companies and food producers, a price to earnings ratio of 10 or less is a good buy. Of course, the stock market is rarely about real value, it's about prices. Just look at Zynga.
Regardless, it is interesting that Apple continues to hoard cash and build up it's savings account. I'm just wondering what the board is planning to do with that $137 billion that they keep adding to every month. Buy Facebook with a market capitalization of $67 billion? Perhaps Google or Microsoft, both in the $230-245 billion range? I mean, what better way to expand as a technology company than own the two largest operating systems in the world?
Disclosure: I am long (I own) AAPL. Plus, at this price with these sales and earnings I might buy more.
Regardless, it is interesting that Apple continues to hoard cash and build up it's savings account. I'm just wondering what the board is planning to do with that $137 billion that they keep adding to every month. Buy Facebook with a market capitalization of $67 billion? Perhaps Google or Microsoft, both in the $230-245 billion range? I mean, what better way to expand as a technology company than own the two largest operating systems in the world?
Disclosure: I am long (I own) AAPL. Plus, at this price with these sales and earnings I might buy more.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Discount Rate
In the world of value, specifically money and investing, but really anything with present and future value, there is something referred to as the discount rate. Basically, it refers to how something increases in value over time. The specific rate can be a significant issue, especially in the insurance industry. This also makes a huge difference in the pension, annuity, and social security actuary scales. However, on a more human level it makes a difference too.
When determining how to spend my time who and what is more important? There are many variables of course, but take the hypothetical example of a girlfriend. I have no idea how her value to me might increase over time, but the possibility of an increase daily over 60 years means that even a relatively minor value now is huge. Similarly, my sister has been my sister for over two decades and will be for 5 or 6 or more. Similarly, to me the value of racing in the Olympic Marathon Trials means that today, I have to get out there and perform at a certain level. I may have years, but I need to be at a high level today because I can only improve so fast, perhaps only 3% per year or even 1%! You can think of this in weight loss too, if your goal is to average three pounds of weight loss per month through five hours of exercise per week for one year you can start with only three or four hours of exercise per week and maybe not lose weight or only one pound the first month. That is fine because as your fitness and exercise regimen ramps up according to a discount rate you will lose more weight later in the program.
This brings up the other aspect, at some point in many situations we have achieved maximum value. In other words at some point in weight loss perhaps you are losing five pounds per month and at that point get to some moderately fit level. Your weight loss per month will decrease after achieving your maximum loss rate and low future weight to lose. It is the same for athletics. At some point a 1% increase in performance will require 50% more effort.
In short, values typically increase over time. Thus all things being equal the younger person performing at the same level as an older person may in fact be worth more for the probable future increase in value. Obviously that is an over simplification. The ways that a person might increase in value are difficult to estimate. Thus that is why we generally, and appropriately, give attention and economic value (money) to those that have demonstrated past value. Somewhere in the mathematical world of past demonstrated value and future possible value exists significant value, which may in fact be undervalued.
When determining how to spend my time who and what is more important? There are many variables of course, but take the hypothetical example of a girlfriend. I have no idea how her value to me might increase over time, but the possibility of an increase daily over 60 years means that even a relatively minor value now is huge. Similarly, my sister has been my sister for over two decades and will be for 5 or 6 or more. Similarly, to me the value of racing in the Olympic Marathon Trials means that today, I have to get out there and perform at a certain level. I may have years, but I need to be at a high level today because I can only improve so fast, perhaps only 3% per year or even 1%! You can think of this in weight loss too, if your goal is to average three pounds of weight loss per month through five hours of exercise per week for one year you can start with only three or four hours of exercise per week and maybe not lose weight or only one pound the first month. That is fine because as your fitness and exercise regimen ramps up according to a discount rate you will lose more weight later in the program.
This brings up the other aspect, at some point in many situations we have achieved maximum value. In other words at some point in weight loss perhaps you are losing five pounds per month and at that point get to some moderately fit level. Your weight loss per month will decrease after achieving your maximum loss rate and low future weight to lose. It is the same for athletics. At some point a 1% increase in performance will require 50% more effort.
In short, values typically increase over time. Thus all things being equal the younger person performing at the same level as an older person may in fact be worth more for the probable future increase in value. Obviously that is an over simplification. The ways that a person might increase in value are difficult to estimate. Thus that is why we generally, and appropriately, give attention and economic value (money) to those that have demonstrated past value. Somewhere in the mathematical world of past demonstrated value and future possible value exists significant value, which may in fact be undervalued.
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